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Vote of no Confidence Protest
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Should you vote for The Opportunity Party (TOP)? I have been researching and teaching Aotearoa New Zealand politics for 39 years. I have also been following this election very closely. If you are thinking of voting for TOP because you like their policies then that is your democratic right and fair enough. But if you want a change of government then this is not the party to vote for. Even though the polling shows that around 75% of TOP's support comes from the centre-left, the party leadership has consistently refused to express a preference for working with either National or Labour. The party's leadership has said it will talk first with the party that gets the most seats not votes. On current polling it is slightly more likely that National may get more seats than Labour - even if Labour gets a slightly larger share of the party vote.
If the centre-right vote splitting promoted by the $20 billion dollar right-wing Mowbray family works, then National might get three or more seats more than it is entitled to on the basis of the party vote. If you have voted for TOP, and do want a change of government, then how will you feel if Qiulae Wong calls National first in this situation?
Then there is the important matter of whether TOP will end up with more than 5% of the vote. Most recent polling indicates that it will, but these polls have a margin of error around 3% so it is far from certain. TOP may well end up being National's best chance of holding on to power. Recall that in Aotearoa's first MMP election in 1996 NZ First campaigned on a largely anti-National basis before the election, but then after election day helped National stay in power. A National Business Review poll conducted at the time indicated that 78% of NZ First's supporters wanted it to go with Labour, but Winston Peters went with National. Are we about to see history repeat?
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